Source : Times of India

SpaceX Starship: What’s Next After Third Consecutive Failure?

Boca Chica, Texas – SpaceX’s ambitious Starship program faced another setback on Tuesday, May 27, 2025, when its ninth test flight ended in a "rapid unscheduled disassembly" – a euphemism for an explosion – after the spacecraft lost control and broke apart during re-entry. This marks the third consecutive failure for Starship, raising questions about the program’s timeline, its role in NASA’s Artemis program, and SpaceX’s broader vision of making humanity multiplanetary. Despite these challenges, the company’s iterative approach and resilience suggest a path forward, even as critics highlight concerns about cost, safety, and reliability.

A Promising Start, A Fiery End

The Starship Flight 9 mission launched from SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas, at 7:37 p.m. EDT (2337 GMT). The test flight aimed to push the boundaries of Starship’s capabilities, including the first reuse of a Super Heavy booster and testing new heat shield designs, control fins, and payload deployment systems. The launch initially appeared successful, with the Super Heavy booster separating cleanly and the upper stage reaching orbital velocity – a significant milestone compared to the previous two tests in January and March 2025, which failed earlier in flight.

However, issues emerged during the orbital phase. A propellant leak caused the upper stage to spin uncontrollably, and the payload bay doors failed to open, preventing the deployment of mock Starlink satellites. Mission control lost contact with the spacecraft as it tumbled during re-entry, and it disintegrated over the Indian Ocean, far from its planned soft landing site. The Super Heavy booster also failed to achieve its planned controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, plunging uncontrollably after losing telemetry.

“We’ve essentially lost our attitude control with Starship,” a SpaceX commentator noted during the live broadcast, later confirming the rapid unscheduled disassembly. Despite the failure, SpaceX emphasized that the test provided valuable data, stating, “Success comes from what we learn, and today’s test will help us improve Starship’s reliability.”

A Pattern of Challenges

The ninth test flight was Starship’s most successful to date, surpassing the milestones of the January and March tests, which saw the upper stage fail less than 10 minutes after liftoff due to engine issues and propellant leaks. However, the recurring failures highlight persistent challenges with Starship’s complex systems, particularly attitude control and propulsion reliability. Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, noted that the “big failure” was the inability to maintain Starship’s orientation during orbital coast, compounded by fuel leaks and a stuck payload door.

The Super Heavy booster’s failure to land as planned also underscores the difficulty of achieving full reusability, a cornerstone of SpaceX’s vision to reduce launch costs. While the booster was successfully reused for the first time – a significant step – its loss of contact and uncontrolled descent indicate that further refinements are needed.

Industry and Expert Reactions

The string of failures has sparked debate about SpaceX’s “fail fast, learn fast” philosophy, which contrasts with traditional aerospace development’s emphasis on meticulous pre-flight testing. Dr. Leah-Nani Alconcel, a spacecraft engineer at the University of Birmingham, expressed skepticism about applying this approach to Starship, given its high costs and ambitious goals. “Each Starship launch is substantially more expensive than the Falcon launches were,” she told the BBC. “Its primary aim is to send humans to Mars, a goal which is predicated on a market that doesn’t exist yet, and therefore represents a bigger financial risk.”

NASA, a key partner relying on Starship as the lunar lander for its Artemis 3 mission, faces potential delays due to these setbacks. Dr. McDowell suggested that crewed lunar missions, originally targeted for 2027, could be years away, posing a “very embarrassing thing for NASA to navigate.” The agency has acknowledged SpaceX’s iterative approach but is increasingly vocal about needing progress to stay competitive with China’s lunar ambitions.

Despite the criticism, some experts remain optimistic. “No one else is even trying something on the scale of Starship,” McDowell said. “If they get it to work – and they have to get it to work – that will cement their position as the industry leader.” SpaceX’s Falcon 9, with a 99.76% success rate across 424 launches, demonstrates the potential for iterative development to yield reliable results, though Starship’s complexity far exceeds that of its predecessor.

SpaceX’s Path Forward

SpaceX is already preparing for its next steps. The company has a robust testing infrastructure at its McGregor, Texas, facility and plans to conduct at least six more Starship test flights in 2025, pending FAA approval. Each failure requires a SpaceX-led investigation overseen by the FAA, which must approve corrective actions before the next launch. The agency’s recent approval for Flight 9 after the March failure suggests a willingness to support SpaceX’s rapid testing cadence, though regulatory scrutiny may intensify with repeated failures.

Key areas of focus for future tests include:

• Attitude Control: Addressing the loss of orientation during orbital coast, likely caused by propellant leaks and engine malfunctions.

• Payload Deployment: Resolving issues with the payload bay doors to enable satellite deployment, critical for Starship’s commercial viability.

• Booster Reusability: Refining the Super Heavy booster’s landing process to achieve consistent controlled recoveries.

• Heat Shield and Re-entry: Testing new heat shield designs and control fins to ensure Starship can withstand the intense heat of re-entry.

SpaceX’s Starbase General Manager, Kathy Lueders, announced plans to attempt catching a Starship upper stage with the launch tower’s “chopstick” arms within the next six months, a bold step toward full reusability. The company also aims for 25 launches in 2025, signaling an aggressive push to accelerate development.

Broader Implications

The Starship program is central to SpaceX’s long-term goals, including replacing the Falcon 9 as its primary commercial launch vehicle and enabling crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. Its role in NASA’s Artemis program underscores its importance to U.S. space exploration, but delays could strain relations with the agency and impact timelines for lunar landings.

Competitors like Blue Origin and Chinese space ventures are gaining ground, but none match Starship’s scale or ambition. A successful Starship could solidify SpaceX’s dominance in the commercial space sector, which already accounts for over half of global orbital launches, with 134 successful Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy missions in 2024 alone.

Musk’s Vision and Public Sentiment

Elon Musk, SpaceX’s CEO, was scheduled to deliver a presentation titled “The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary” after the Flight 9 launch but has not yet done so, prompting speculation about his focus amid political and business commitments. Posts on X reflect mixed sentiment, with some users praising SpaceX’s persistence – “We’ll keep learning and improving” – while others question the program’s viability after three consecutive failures.

Musk’s vision of colonizing Mars remains a driving force, but the financial and technical challenges of Starship are significant. Tim Farrar, a space consultant, noted that while SpaceX’s resources dwarf those of competitors, the program’s high costs could strain even Musk’s wealth if failures persist. “At some point, the ‘iterative design methodology’ may no longer be as cost-effective as it once was,” he cautioned.

Looking Ahead

SpaceX’s next Starship test is likely months away, pending a thorough investigation and FAA approval. The company’s track record with Falcon 9 suggests that persistence can overcome early failures, but Starship’s unprecedented scale and complexity present unique challenges. As SpaceX analyzes data from Flight 9, the focus will be on addressing propellant leaks, improving attitude control, and ensuring booster reliability.

For now, the space community watches closely. Will SpaceX’s “fail fast, learn fast” approach deliver a revolutionary rocket, or will repeated setbacks force a reevaluation of its strategy? As one X user put it, “Rockets are hard.” But with Musk’s vision and SpaceX’s engineering prowess, the journey to Mars – and the Moon – continues, one test at a time.